Nigeria achieved a $10.83 billion trade surplus in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting stronger exports, moderated imports, and improved economic resilience, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Quarterly Statistical Bulletin.
During January–September 2025, Nigeria’s exports totaled $44.06 billion, surpassing imports of $33.23 billion, signaling a positive balance of trade that strengthens the country’s external trade position. Analysts attributed the surplus to rising export earnings, moderated import growth, and ongoing trade reforms.
Stronger Exports Drive Nigeria’s Trade Surplus
Data analysis shows that Nigeria’s average monthly export growth was 0.76%, while imports declined slightly at -0.08% per month, indicating a steady improvement in foreign sales and a controlled rise in imports. Experts say this trend eases pressure on foreign exchange markets and supports economic stability.
Monthly Export and Import Trends
Nigeria recorded its largest monthly trade surplus in June 2025 at $1.89bn, while the narrowest surplus occurred in March at $580.68m. Export performance peaked in July at $5.85bn, and May followed with $5.18bn. Imports were highest in July at $4.46bn and lowest in June at $3.08bn.
These trends suggest that trade reforms and improved export strategies are beginning to yield measurable results.
Oil Exports Dominate Trade Surplus
Oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s trade surplus. During the period, oil exports totaled $37.13bn, accounting for 84.3% of total exports, while non-oil exports contributed $6.93bn (15.7%). Despite the positive headline figures, analysts warn that over-reliance on oil exposes the economy to global energy market fluctuations.
Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo, former Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce Export Group, emphasized the importance of diversifying Nigeria’s export base. “Agriculture and manufacturing must play a larger role to sustain trade surplus and reduce dependency on crude oil,” he said.
Analysts Highlight Need for Diversification
Experts attribute the positive balance of trade to multiple factors, including:
Rising oil and non-oil exports
Improved refinery capacity
Stability in foreign exchange rates
Increased domestic production in agriculture and manufacturing
Segun Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists (NASSI), noted: “Exporting more than we import reflects a healthier economy and reduces balance of trade disequilibrium.”
Agriculture and Manufacturing: Key to Sustainable Growth
Stakeholders see agriculture as a “quick win” for diversifying exports. Increased rice and soybean production can reduce imports and enhance foreign exchange inflows. For example, global demand for soybeans exceeds $100bn annually, and China alone imports 60–70% of global production, presenting a significant market opportunity for Nigeria.
Manufacturing, on the other hand, is vital for long-term sustainability. Processed goods increase value addition, improve shelf life, and meet international export standards, reducing dependency on raw commodity exports.
Regulatory Challenges Impact Non-Oil Exports
Despite overall growth, non-oil export growth faces bottlenecks. Dr. Benedict Obhiosa, Secretary of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Promotion Group (MANEG), highlighted delays in ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme approvals and rigid regulations from agencies like NAFDAC, which hinder manufacturers from exporting processed goods efficiently.
Addressing these regulatory hurdles and investing in export infrastructure will be crucial to expanding non-oil exports and ensuring a sustainable trade surplus.
