Escalating tensions between Iran and the United States could lead to a significant increase in petrol and diesel prices in Nigeria if global crude oil prices continue to rise.

Energy analysts warn that Nigeria remains vulnerable to global oil market fluctuations despite the presence of local refining capacity.

Recent market checks across major Nigerian cities show petrol selling between ₦824 and ₦880 per litre, depending on logistics costs and distribution factors.

The current pricing follows a recent adjustment by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which reduced its petrol gantry price by ₦25 per litre, bringing the ex-depot rate to ₦774 per litre.

However, energy experts caution that the ongoing Iran–US geopolitical conflict could quickly reverse these gains.

Tensions in the Middle East have already caused volatility in the global oil market, with crude prices rising by about 10 percent over the weekend due to disruptions around the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.

More than 20 percent of global oil shipments pass through this route, meaning any military escalation or shipping disruption can trigger sharp increases in crude oil prices.

Currently, Brent crude trades around $72.87 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stands at $67.02.

Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude is priced at approximately $78.62 per barrel. Analysts warn that if prices climb above $90 per barrel, Nigerian fuel prices could increase significantly.

Industry experts also point out that Nigeria’s refining sector still depends heavily on imported crude oil.

Despite operating one of Africa’s largest refineries, a large portion of feedstock used by the Dangote refinery is sourced from international markets.

This reliance exposes Nigeria’s domestic fuel prices to international shocks. Since the removal of fuel subsidies, local petrol prices now closely follow global oil market trends.

Energy economists say the crisis should push Nigeria to improve crude oil production, reduce oil theft, and prioritize supplying domestic refineries with locally produced crude.

Strengthening local supply chains could help stabilize fuel prices and improve long-term energy security for Nigerian consumers.

If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify further, Nigerians may soon face another round of fuel price adjustments across the country.